MetroCommon by 2050

How Do We Plan for an
Uncertain Future?

  • Key Takeaways
  • Demographics and the Economy
  • The Future of Travel
  • Federal policy
  • The Future

How Do We Plan for an
Uncertain Future?

  • Key Takeaways
  • Demographics and the Economy
  • The Future of Travel
  • Federal policy
  • The Future
Decorative Border

2050. 29 Years. It's a long time away.

Three decades ago, our region looked very different than it does today. In 1990, cell phones were rare accessories for business executives, and a massive, elevated highway split downtown Boston. Now there’s a high-powered computer in nearly every pocket and a beautiful greenway stretching across the city. It’s hard to know what 2050 will look like, but we can be sure it will not look the same as today.

Some of the changes will be of our own choosing. Just as the region decided to tear down the Central Artery and build a park in its place, we can take the initiative to build new infrastructure, change development rules, or provide new services and supports to the region’s residents. Yet even as we take charge of our future, the world will be changing around us, and we will be required to respond to conditions and constraints outside of our control.

Unfortunately, we don’t yet know what those changes will be. There could be new technologies or societal trends that make it easier to achieve our goals, or much harder. The COVID pandemic has shown us just how quickly the world can change and how little certainty we should have about things that seem fixed. MetroCommon acknowledges this unpredictability and seeks to create a framework for responsible long-term planning – even in the context of deep uncertainty.

Policies tailored to today’s needs may not work in the same way under radically different conditions. For example, it seems like a no-brainer to fix leaky natural gas pipelines that are contributing to climate change; but if technology, federal policy, and market conditions enable rapid electrification of home heating and cooking, those pipelines (and their leaks) may become obsolete by the year 2050. How should the region decide how much, and where, to spend resources on fixing pipes when we don’t know how long those investments will be useful? The way we tackle conundrums such as this one will determine whether the people of 2050 see the decisions of the next few years as prescient, short-sighted, or futile.

If we hope for prescience, we must be aware of the many uncertainties we face. What are the powerful societal, economic, and political trends that could shape the world? What emerging technologies and practices could have a major impact if they take root? What seemingly inevitable transformations might “fizzle out” leaving the world unchanged?

Once we have a good sense of key uncertainties, we can assess how those uncertainties might affect the urgency, efficacy, or relevance of potential policy interventions. Some policy ideas are “robust,” meaning they will be effective across a wide range of conditions. These policies can be pursued without much risk. Others may be contingent on external conditions – successful under some, while ineffective or even counterproductive under others. In these cases, it will be critical to track conditions and determine when those policies should be initiated, accelerated, or discontinued, as conditions warrant.

Key Takeaways from Engagement

Over the course of the MetroCommon planning effort we engaged people in the region to better understand what it means to be ready for uncertainty. Our discussions led to four main takeaways to better plan for policy and action.

    We know that the fewer disparities that mark our population, the easier it is for us to adapt to uncertainty. Many participants noted that when the economy is doing well it should be harnessed to increase equity in the region, invest in public needs, and make us better able to withstand periods of economic decline.

    Along the same lines, it’s critical that we center the voices of those most disenfranchised in our planning efforts to better understand the needs of all residents. Without this framework, it’s easy to think of certain future uncertainties ‘in aggregate,’ for example ‘what happens if we all work from home in the future?’ The truth is, working from home will never be possible for some front-line workers. Sanitation workers, childcare workers, health aids, and service workers all need to attend their jobs in-person and probably will need to do so for decades to come. It’s critical that our policy conversations center the experiences of everyone, particularly those who will be most impacted by future changes.

    Our MetroCommon goals are bold. They imagine a future where everyone is able to thrive and our region is able to withstand a variety of challenges. Doing this will require we financial and regulatory incentives and disincentives that enlist the private sector as a partner in reaching our vision for 2050. Participants also noted that it is critical for our desired choices (smart-growth development, low-emission travel, etc.) to always be the easiest path for investors and individuals to make.

    A number of participants noted the need for regional collaboration to address any major challenges that may come our way. In addition to collaboration, a recentering of power is needed. A government should be the working body for the people, so it is critical that all people are able to discern and detail their desires. With increasing distrust in our federal government systems, it is critical for local governments to distinguish themself as an effective working system. Challenging the ‘status quo’ can be difficult, but responding to future uncertainties may provide unique opportunities to incrementally change priorities over time and express our values in new ways.

    This insight stresses the need to create flexible systems and structures, but creating these systems ahead of time will help avoid the need to be reactionary. For example, if agencies switch to flexible online forms and database structures, they will be able to collect, organize, and analyze data in predictable ways going – no matter what the regulation need is. In every workshop, participants noted that ‘how and where people live will change.’ This stresses our need for flexibility in the systems and structures we create to respond to the new ways that people live and work. Participants also noted the need for government to quickly adapt to new technology and regulate companies before for-profit institutions influence policy and decide the rules for themselves.

Notecards, gathering of people, light teal triangle, dark teal triangle

Four Key Uncertainties Examined

A Changing Economy

How many jobs Greater Boston will offer in 2050, and in which industries and occupations, are factors that can’t be known for sure – but they’ll influence the region profoundly. That makes our future economy a major uncertainty for which we must prepare.

There are some things we know about our thirty-years-from-now economy: it will be made up of workers – regardless of how much of life becomes automated. And some goods and services will be the same as ours today, and some will be different.

Remembering that our economy is based on workers reminds us of the importance of housing and transportation as ways to grow the economy. Ultimately, the region's available labor force will impact how many jobs our region can hold.

    The Future of Travel

    Transportation is a fundamentally regional issue – people travel all throughout Metro Boston, and we all share a network of roadways, transit systems, bike routes, and other infrastructure. It is already clear that the transportation system of today is incapable of meeting the needs of tomorrow. Congestion is among the worst in the nation; commuters of color experience disproportionately long commutes when compared to White commuters; transportation produces a third of our GHG emissions; deferred maintenance undermines safety and reliability; and subways and roadways are already disrupted during major storms.

    Meeting the transportation challenges of the future will require both regional coordination and local action. It will also require a sense of how the region’s travel needs, vehicles, and transportation services may change over the coming decades. As with other uncertainties, some aspects of future travel are relatively certain: most trips will start and end in places that are already built up; most travelers will value speed and convenience over other considerations; and highway expansion just induces more demand and congestion.

    Yet many other aspects of travel were highly uncertain before the COVID-19 pandemic and are even more so today. Transportation technologies and services have evolved rapidly and will continue to do so over the next three decades. The proliferation of ride-hailing, delivery services, e-commerce, e-bikes, and micromobility demonstrate how quickly new modes and services can be adopted, and how disruptive they may be to existing transport services, roadways, and communities. Just as the impact of new technologies and services would have been hard to predict in 1990, the upcoming impact of autonomous vehicles, mobility as a service, and delivery services are hard to foresee.

    Similarly, the COVID 19 pandemic has demonstrated that disruptions can also drastically reduce the need for travel. Remote work, remote school, telemedicine, and virtual parties have all allowed people to do many things without leaving their home. Certainly some—though not all—of these trends will continue after the pandemic, especially as communication technology improves and virtual reality closes the gap between virtual and in-person interaction.

      The Future of Federal Policy​

      In addition to the many behavioral, economic, and technological factors that are out of our control, political decisions at the federal level will have a profound influence on our future.

      This plan was created during a period of great political uncertainty at the federal level. While some of this uncertainty may seem to ebb and flow with the two- and four- year election cycles, it is certain that things will look different in 2030 and 2050 than they do today.

      Federal policy influences almost all the work that MAPC does as an agency and cares about as an institution. However, for the purposes of this plan we have decided to focus on three major uncertainties that could have broad influences on our region and would require us to react at the state and local level.

      1. The future of healthcare policy​
      2. Federal environmental regulations and climate change policy
      3. Federal funding for local governments, infrastructure, and disaster relief

        Demographic Change

        In order to plan for an equitable, sustainable, and prosperous region in 2050, we need some sense of who we are planning for. How many people should we expect? How many will be young or old? How many and what kind of units will be needed to house them? Answers to these questions will determine what type of housing the region will need, the transportation services we must invest in, along with what other public services state and local governments must provide.

        The basic components of population change are simple: everyone gets older at the same rate; babies are being born every day; some people move out of the region, while others move in; and some of our current residents will pass away before 2050. An understanding of the basic trends in these elements can allow us to prepare for generational shifts over time.

        For example, Baby Boomers still comprise a substantial share of the region’s workforce and homeowners, but over the coming decades they will be entering new life stages. By 2050, all members of the Baby Boomer generation will be over 85 years old. While we don’t know exactly when or how many Boomers will move out of the region, pass away, or retire, we know enough to begin estimating how their changing needs for housing, income, and services may create both challenges and opportunities for the region. For example, we can predict with some certainty that there will be a large, if gradual, exodus from the workforce. We can predict there will be a greater number of older adults in need of transportation services and a larger number of homeowners on fixed incomes.

          A Changing Economy

          How many jobs Greater Boston will offer in 2050, and in which industries and occupations, are factors that can’t be known for sure – but they’ll influence the region profoundly. That makes our future economy a major uncertainty for which we must prepare.

          There are some things we know about our thirty-years-from-now economy: it will be made up of workers – regardless of how much of life becomes automated. And some goods and services will be the same as ours today, and some will be different.

          Remembering that our economy is based on workers reminds us of the importance of housing and transportation as ways to grow the economy. Ultimately, the region's available labor force will impact how many jobs our region can hold.

          Learn more about MAPC's research on the future of work here.

          The Future of Travel

          Transportation is a fundamentally regional issue – people travel all throughout Metro Boston, and we all share a network of roadways, transit systems, bike routes, and other infrastructure. It is already clear that the transportation system of today is incapable of meeting the needs of tomorrow. Congestion is among the worst in the nation; commuters of color experience disproportionately long commutes when compared to White commuters; transportation produces a third of our GHG emissions; deferred maintenance undermines safety and reliability; and subways and roadways are already disrupted during major storms.

          Meeting the transportation challenges of the future will require both regional coordination and local action. It will also require a sense of how the region’s travel needs, vehicles, and transportation services may change over the coming decades. As with other uncertainties, some aspects of future travel are relatively certain: most trips will start and end in places that are already built up; most travelers will value speed and convenience over other considerations; and highway expansion just induces more demand and congestion.

          Yet many other aspects of travel were highly uncertain before the COVID-19 pandemic and are even more so today. Transportation technologies and services have evolved rapidly and will continue to do so over the next three decades. The proliferation of ride-hailing, delivery services, e-commerce, e-bikes, and micromobility demonstrate how quickly new modes and services can be adopted, and how disruptive they may be to existing transport services, roadways, and communities. Just as the impact of new technologies and services would have been hard to predict in 1990, the upcoming impact of autonomous vehicles, mobility as a service, and delivery services are hard to foresee.

          Similarly, the COVID 19 pandemic has demonstrated that disruptions can also drastically reduce the need for travel. Remote work, remote school, telemedicine, and virtual parties have all allowed people to do many things without leaving their home. Certainly some—though not all—of these trends will continue after the pandemic, especially as communication technology improves and virtual reality closes the gap between virtual and in-person interaction.

          Learn more through MAPC's research on the impact of ecommerce, TNC's, and automated vehicle technology.

          The Future of Federal Policy​

          In addition to the many behavioral, economic, and technological factors that are out of our control, political decisions at the federal level will have a profound influence on our future.

          This plan was created during a period of great political uncertainty at the federal level. While some of this uncertainty may seem to ebb and flow with the two- and four- year election cycles, it is certain that things will look different in 2030 and 2050 than they do today.

          Federal policy influences almost all the work that MAPC does as an agency and cares about as an institution. However, for the purposes of this plan we have decided to focus on three major uncertainties that could have broad influences on our region and would require us to react at the state and local level.

          1. The future of healthcare policy​
          2. Federal environmental regulations and climate change policy
          3. Federal funding for local governments, infrastructure, and disaster relief

          Learn more about MAPC's research on climate vulnerability, sea level rise, and legislative policy.

          Demographic Change

          In order to plan for an equitable, sustainable, and prosperous region in 2050, we need some sense of who we are planning for. How many people should we expect? How many will be young or old? How many and what kind of units will be needed to house them? Answers to these questions will determine what type of housing the region will need, the transportation services we must invest in, along with what other public services state and local governments must provide.

          The basic components of population change are simple: everyone gets older at the same rate; babies are being born every day; some people move out of the region, while others move in; and some of our current residents will pass away before 2050. An understanding of the basic trends in these elements can allow us to prepare for generational shifts over time.

          For example, Baby Boomers still comprise a substantial share of the region’s workforce and homeowners, but over the coming decades they will be entering new life stages. By 2050, all members of the Baby Boomer generation will be over 85 years old. While we don’t know exactly when or how many Boomers will move out of the region, pass away, or retire, we know enough to begin estimating how their changing needs for housing, income, and services may create both challenges and opportunities for the region. For example, we can predict with some certainty that there will be a large, if gradual, exodus from the workforce. We can predict there will be a greater number of older adults in need of transportation services and a larger number of homeowners on fixed incomes.

          Read more about our research on demographics and scenarios for the future here.

          MAPC logoMetropolitan Area Planning Council | 617-933-0700 | metrocommon.mapc.org

          About MAPC

          The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) is the regional planning agency serving the people who live and work in the 101 cities and towns of Metropolitan Boston.

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